It is hard to pinpoint the moment when Brexit enthusiasts stopped claiming that leaving the UK could be painless. The promises of an easy, lucrative separation faded gradually after the referendum campaign. Now even zealous Eurosceptics preface their rosy visions of a post-EU future with caveats of temporary disruption.
Meanwhile, the Treasury has taken a consistently gloomy view, seeing no model of Brexit superior to the deal Britain enjoys as a member of the Brussels club. Government analysis published on Wednesday anticipates slower economic growth under every Brexit scenario. Leaving with no deal would lead to a GDP shortfall of 7.7% by 2036; a managed hard Brexit – trading on the Canadian model – would incur an equivalent 4.9% penalty. A softer Brexit would shave 1.4% from growth over the same period. There are no numbers to match Theresa May’s deal, which is an expression of its vagueness regarding the long-term EU relationship.
Continue reading...from The Guardian https://ift.tt/2FM1Brx
No comments:
Post a Comment